Saturday, September 22, 2007

F Fund Trends










Note rise in F fund prices in figure to the right above. Recent drop in values of F fund ... depite this recent pullback, F fund values are still in an upward trending trough [note the red lines bracketing the F fund prices].
On the left is a graph showing the change in 10 year Treasury Note Yields, which move opposite to F fund price. Note the moving averages for Treasury yields are still trending downwards.
It will be interesting to see if these recent changes in bond price/yield trends change come October and November...
readers are advised to make their own investment decisions and no recommendations are made here.











Tuesday, September 18, 2007

FED Cuts Rates

A surprise from the Federal Reserve in cutting both its Fed Funds rate and Discount Rate each by a half point. Short and intermediate bond prices rose but long bonds fell. The S&P has risen to the 1500 level so far. This will likely create a new dynamic in the markets going forward.
Undoubtedly, there will be much news about this on the net; so, take notice.

TSP Update

TSP announced new upgrades as follows:

TSP board backs budget hike for tech upgrade:

By Amelia Gruber agruber@govexec.com September 17, 2007
The board overseeing the federal employee Thrift Savings Plan on Monday backed a 24 percent increase in the 401(k)-style program's budget for fiscal 2008, largely to support a massive modernization of systems for processing transactions.
Board members approved a budget of $108.4 million for the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1, marking an increase of $20.8 million over the $87.6 million approved for fiscal 2007. The TSP's budget has declined for the past three years even as assets have grown. But plan officials told board members that investments in new technology are necessary to ensure the program is secure and capable of weathering events ranging from a plunge in the market to a terrorist attack or natural disaster.
"This in my view represents a budget that makes sense," said TSP Executive Director Gregory Long. "It's prudent, and it represents the interests of participants."
Mark Hagerty, the plan's chief information officer, stressed that the current technology has performed well in terms of handling influxes of transactions and meeting trading deadlines. But he recommended that officials "skate ahead of the puck" by making upgrades before they become more urgent.
Reviews of the TSP's current technological capacities indicate that most of the plan's computing platforms are at or near the end of their life cycles, Hagerty said. Also, some systems are not adequately backed up, and certain inefficiencies need to be addressed, he said.
He proposed a solution that would take about two years and require about $15 million in capital investments. The plan would involve replacing mainframe computers with newer technology offering more memory and faster processors, consolidating and replacing servers, modernizing IT networks and improving storage capacity.
The upgrades will have such benefits as allowing the encryption of data "at rest" and enabling a mandatory switch to the next generation of the Internet, known as Internet Protocol version 6, Hagerty said. The modernization also is expected to help decrease the time needed to transfer operations should a system fail.
The bulk of the cost will be felt in fiscal 2008, Long said. But costs will not decrease as much as might be anticipated the next year because hardware and software maintenance fees will increase after the first year.
TSP officials projected that the plan's overall budget will go down slightly in fiscal 2009, falling by $1.3 million from fiscal 2008 to $107.1 million.
Other projects on tap for 2008 include a redesign of TSP's Web site. The changes should be complete within a year, Long said.
Plan officials already are implementing steps to make that site more secure. Participants will receive new account numbers by Oct. 1. Currently, the system uses Social Security numbers to identify accounts. The change has turned out to be labor intensive, with calls already coming in from concerned participants, plan officials said. Long said he expects continued pushback from some participants reluctant to have an extra number to learn. But he emphasized the necessity of the change.

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

September's anxieties...


Keep this seasonality in mind as we enter next week with a FED meeting that many expect to reduce the fed funds rate by .25 to .50%. This is not a sure thing however.
Furthermore, the S&P continues to trade around the 200 day moving average in a range between 1400 and 1475.
more later when I return to town.

Thursday, September 6, 2007

on the road at Terrible's Casino

this comes to you from Terrible's Casino in Iowa, Land of Plenty...

It appears the S&P is moving gradually up and away from its low of 1406 in August.
Despite the volatility, the 200 day moving average is still headed upward...
more later ...

Saturday, September 1, 2007

September's Seasonal Trend







September is notoriously weak for markets, but what will it be this time...